Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 6.822591e-05 0.000082 0.000096 0.000113 0.000132 0.000152 0.000175
2025-03-16 5.070568e-05 0.000068 0.000088 0.000112 0.000141 0.000174 0.000213
2025-03-23 4.141150e-05 0.000060 0.000083 0.000112 0.000148 0.000190 0.000242
2025-03-30 3.351317e-05 0.000053 0.000078 0.000111 0.000153 0.000203 0.000268
2025-04-06 2.696874e-05 0.000046 0.000072 0.000108 0.000154 0.000212 0.000287
2025-04-13 2.214308e-05 0.000041 0.000068 0.000106 0.000157 0.000222 0.000308
2025-04-20 1.714347e-05 0.000035 0.000061 0.000100 0.000155 0.000224 0.000319
2025-04-27 1.440262e-05 0.000032 0.000059 0.000100 0.000158 0.000235 0.000340
2025-05-04 1.235481e-05 0.000029 0.000057 0.000100 0.000163 0.000247 0.000363
2025-05-11 1.085337e-05 0.000028 0.000056 0.000102 0.000170 0.000261 0.000389
2025-05-18 9.502348e-06 0.000026 0.000055 0.000103 0.000176 0.000275 0.000414
2025-05-25 7.535367e-06 0.000023 0.000051 0.000100 0.000175 0.000278 0.000426
2025-06-01 5.445815e-06 0.000019 0.000047 0.000096 0.000173 0.000283 0.000442
2025-06-08 4.178096e-06 0.000017 0.000044 0.000095 0.000177 0.000295 0.000469
2025-06-15 3.276893e-06 0.000015 0.000042 0.000095 0.000181 0.000308 0.000497
2025-06-22 2.451369e-06 0.000014 0.000040 0.000094 0.000184 0.000319 0.000521
2025-06-29 1.707013e-06 0.000012 0.000037 0.000091 0.000184 0.000325 0.000539
2025-07-06 1.207813e-06 0.000010 0.000035 0.000089 0.000186 0.000334 0.000561
2025-07-13 7.069338e-07 0.000008 0.000031 0.000084 0.000182 0.000333 0.000570
2025-07-20 4.877326e-07 0.000007 0.000030 0.000084 0.000185 0.000344 0.000595
2025-07-27 3.433670e-07 0.000007 0.000029 0.000084 0.000190 0.000358 0.000624
2025-08-03 2.513349e-07 0.000006 0.000029 0.000086 0.000196 0.000374 0.000657
2025-08-10 1.765150e-07 0.000006 0.000028 0.000087 0.000202 0.000389 0.000689